New Analysis Shows No Clear Evidence That Heated Tobacco Products Are a Better Alternative to Cigarettes or That They Help Smokers Quit

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New STOP brief examines the latest scientific evidence, sales data and industry tactics 

(New York, USA, April 30, 2025): As sales of heated tobacco products (HTPs) increase globally, a new brief from tobacco watchdog, STOP, reveals that while the tobacco industry markets these products as “reduced risk,” there is no clear evidence that they are a better alternative, even to cigarettes. Nor is there independent evidence supporting industry claims around smoking cessation. Meanwhile, the industry lobbies for favorable regulation to promote their use, including lower tax rates and exemptions from smokefree laws and tobacco advertising bans.

The brief, “Understanding Heated Tobacco Products: Current Issues and Recent Findings,” examines the latest academic research, including a paper published today, “The impact of heated tobacco products on biomarkers of potential harm and adverse events: a systematic review and meta-analysis“, market data and evidence of tobacco industry lobbying and marketing tactics. It also highlights the industry’s commercial interest in growing HTP sales, which are expected to hit $41.6 billion in 2025. Key findings include:

Harms

• Research does not confirm health benefits even among smokers who make a complete switch. Use introduces new risks to non-smokers, including youth.
• Some harmful and potentially harmful constituents, including carcinogens, are found in higher concentrations in HTP emissions than cigarette smoke.
• HTPs cause harm at every step of their life cycle, with new harms introduced through mining for the elements used in the devices and toxic electrical post-consumer waste.

Quitting Smoking

• Most smokers continue to use cigarettes alongside HTPs or just go back to smoking cigarettes, rather than quitting.
• Data shows greater use among young people and non-smokers than among older smokers.
• HTPs are marketed broadly and in ways that appeal to youth, not targeted to adult smokers.

Biased Science and Industry Misinformation

• Much of the available research the industry uses to promote HTPs is industry-linked. One-third of studies are linked to just one company: Philip Morris International.
• Independent and even the industry’s own research casts doubt on “smoke-free” claims.
• Despite claims of industry “transformation,” the Big Four transnational cigarette companies still sell an estimated 1.85 trillion cigarettes a year. Philip Morris International, which has around 70% of the global HTP market, increased cigarette shipments in 2024.

“There are three key things policymakers and consumers need to know,” said Dr. Sophie Braznell, co-author of the STOP brief and lead researcher on a new academic paper analyzing biomarker data from HTP research, also published today. “First, heated tobacco products cause harmful effects. Second, there is no clear evidence they are safer or less safe than other tobacco and nicotine products, even cigarettes. Third, available research lacks the independence and quality that might help us draw any conclusions about the impacts of real-world use. In effect, HTP users are paying tobacco companies to be part of a real-time experiment that may just lead to disease and premature death.”

“Looking at all the available evidence, there appears to be no benefit to HTPs beyond helping tobacco companies addict the next generation and boost their profits. Rather than helping to end cigarette sales, they’ve helped the industry develop a new revenue stream,” said Jorge Alday, Director of STOP at Vital Strategies. “Governments persuaded by industry misinformation and biased, poor-quality science may be left picking up the health, environmental and economic costs in the future.”

Please contact the STOP press office for more information or to speak to a STOP spokesperson.

About STOP

STOP is a global network of academic and public health organizations. STOP connects experts in all aspects of the tobacco industry’s business to expose and counter its relentless efforts to sell harmful, addictive products. For more information, visit exposetobacco.org.