Big Tobacco’s Script for 2026

Summary

• In 2026, the tobacco industry will use misleading claims to promote its products to hook new users, while hiding the fact that it mainly sells cigarettes.
• The industry will claim that products like heated tobacco and nicotine pouches are helping people quit smoking, despite the lack of independent evidence. Some evidence even suggests these products perpetuate smoking.
• It will also continue insisting that its newer products are only intended for adults, while aggressively marketing them to young people.

The tobacco industry has, historically, been a case study in the successful marketing of addictive, deadly products. It has been able to convince billions of people to use a product that, when consumed as directed, kills half of its users. Tobacco companies do this by sticking to a strict script—one that often contains disinformation and, sometimes, outright lies.

Without independent groups monitoring and reporting on the tobacco industry’s actions, including its marketing to young people, its so-called corporate social responsibility efforts, its meddling in health policy and its expanding product portfolio, policymakers and the public risk being tricked into taking the industry at its word.

Because the industry is only motivated by profits, even at the staggering human cost of 7 million deaths per year, its rhetoric should never be trusted.

As we enter a new year and Big Tobacco rehearses its lines, here is what we predict will be on its script for 2026.

1. Big Tobacco says: “Our newer products are helping people quit smoking.”

Ironically, some of the same major tobacco companies that worked hard to hook billions of people on cigarettes, including British American Tobacco (BAT), Imperial Brands, Japan Tobacco International (JTI) and Philip Morris International (PMI), now claim they don’t want people to smoke cigarettes. Some of the companies’ websites include language about creating a “smokeless world” or a “smoke-free future.”

But if people quit tobacco and nicotine altogether, industry profits would vaporize.

To keep people hooked, tobacco companies have flooded the market with newer products they market as “reduced risk.” These mainly include heated tobacco products (HTPs), e-cigarettes and nicotine pouches. While these products may expose users to fewer harmful chemicals than smoking, a growing body of research confirms users still are exposed to harmful substances, including carcinogens.

And there’s another problem: They have not been proven by independent research to actually help people quit smoking. Dual use (using a newer product while continuing to smoke) is common among HTP users and has increased in youth e-cigarette users. Further, the long-term health effects of HTPs, e-cigarettes and nicotine pouches are unknown.

Yet this line in Big Tobacco’s script is crucially important to the industry, as it helps it misleadingly portray itself as having changed for the better.

If policymakers believe the marketing spin of “reduced risk,” it could help the tobacco industry persuade governments to reverse existing bans and create favorable environments for their usage, such as applying lower taxes or fewer advertising regulations. This means more consumers, including young people, will become hooked on nicotine and exposed to the health risks associated with these products, while the industry will be able to continue with business as usual: selling hundreds of billions of cigarettes every year.

2. Big Tobacco says: “Pouches are a promising new way to move away from tobacco—just look at Sweden.”

The latest product the industry is using to prop up its “tobacco harm reduction” narrative is nicotine pouches—pouches of dehydrated nicotine, often flavored, that the user places between their lip and gum. Each of the Big 4 tobacco companies has started selling nicotine pouches and are expected to ramp up their promotion in 2026.

After all, there’s potential for huge profits: Euromonitor International projects the value of the global nicotine pouch market will reach US $25 billion by 2028.

The tobacco industry and its allies will continue to cite the “Swedish Experience” to help promote pouches. This disinformation overemphasizes a correlation between Swedish men’s relatively high rate of snus (an oral pouch that contains tobacco) use and low rates of smoking and related disease. Tobacco companies never mention that Sweden, in fact, has implemented public health policies to reduce tobacco use since the 1960s and that this is the main driver of the country’s low smoking rates.

While the product at the center of this case is snus (which contains tobacco), BAT, JTI and PMI have all cited the “Swedish Experience” in their efforts to promote their newer products, including nicotine-only pouches.

BAT said it believes the phenomenon is “transferable to [its] increasingly popular oral products.” JTI invoked Swedish imagery and culture to market its nicotine pouches, sold under the brand Nordic Spirit. And PMI acquired the nicotine pouch manufacturer Swedish Match in 2022, enabling it to re-enter the US market and exploit the Swedish connection in its global messaging.

Because nicotine pouches do not contain tobacco and expose users to fewer toxic chemicals than smoking (though nicotine comes with its own health risks, particularly to young, developing brains and experts warn of other potential harms), young people may perceive them as safe or even harmless, a misperception that benefits Big Tobacco. 

3. Big Tobacco says: “Our newer products are only intended for adults.”

This line is always present in Big Tobacco’s script in some form. In 2026, Big Tobacco will likely double-down on this claim as more researchers raise concerns about youth uptake canceling out any harm reduction potential.

Big Tobacco claims that it does not target underage users with its products or marketing, but recent findings paint another picture. Tobacco companies have aggressively marketed HTPs, e-cigarettes and pouches to children and youth online, via its F1 sponsorships and in retail environments.

The effects of marketing tobacco and nicotine products are already being seen around the world. E-cigarette use among youth is increasing, especially among younger boys. The latest World Health Organization tobacco trends report reveals that in countries where data is available, children are on average nine times more likely than adults to use e-cigarettes. And studies show that more young people are aware of and trying nicotine pouches.

Sticking to the script on this point is imperative for Big Tobacco. In order to pave the way for friendlier policies around these products that will help increase sales, it must deflect responsibility for the growing uptake of its newer products among youth.

Let’s flip the script

The tobacco industry plays the leading role in the global tobacco epidemic that kills millions every year, harms economies and destroys the environment. Help us speak louder than Big Tobacco and expose the calculated strategies behind its deadly business.

STOP is grateful for its partners and collaborators around the world who have stood up to the tobacco industry to protect public health. With lives on the line, we are more motivated than ever to reveal industry tactics and hold it accountable for its harms.